There’s a certain sort of frustration that comes from attempting to assess the risk of an action at the table while your brain resists calculating the probability on the fly. Okay, sure, you’ve got eight dice, you’re looking for three successes, but how safe does that sound? Human intuition fails us when it comes to … Read more

But it’s not truly random. When you roll four six-sided dice, you get a bell curve pattern. If that sounds familiar, its probably from tabletop games in which you roll to determine your ability score. Are you going to be a strong character or a weak one? It depends how much those dice adds up. … Read more

One of the oldest habits in tabletop gaming is rolling three six-sided dice. Shake ’em, drop ’em on the table, tally the pips. It seems random. It isn’t. Behind those plastic cubes is a hidden heavy bell curve, and knowing what it looks like alter your gameplay. Most people think all sums between three and … Read more

There’s this moment in every Mau Mau round where it feels like everything’s gone on too long, and everybody simply wishes they could go home. That’s usually because no one is paying attention to the scoreboard. Strategy goes out the window as the conversation turn to who can bluster his way through his hand without … Read more

Tabletop games often use a mechanic where you roll two six-sided dice. Grab the pair, shake them and drop them where they fall, a chance at success on skill check or an attack roll. It feel like simple math: two to twelve. But inside those thirty-six possibilities is something more. There’s a bell curve here … Read more

Here’s one example: You’re playing a tabletop game. It’s your turn. In front of you there is three dice. If your character succeeds at dodging a trap, you roll a d3 pool according to the rules. What’s the chance that you’ll dodge a trap? How do you know? Does it help you to know the … Read more

Probability to most tabletop gamers is an unclear cloud of luck. Roll the dice. Hope for the best. But if you play a d12 system with damage caps or spell slots, you have to understand that those dozen sides makes a specific mathematical landscape. A d12 pool has more variance than a d6 pool. Predictability … Read more