Darts Probability Calculator: Find Your Odds Fast
🎯 Darts Probability Calculator
Calculate hit probability, checkout routes & scoring odds for any darts scenario
⚡ Quick Presets
📐 Unit System
🇺🇸 Imperial (in, ft)
🌍 Metric (mm, cm)
⚙️ Calculator Inputs
Standard: 93.25 in (7 ft 9.25 in)
Standard: 68 in (5 ft 8 in)
📊 Calculation Results
📋 Dartboard Segment Reference
20
Number Segments
82
Scoreable Areas
451mm
Board Diameter
6.35mm
Bull Diameter
31.8mm
Bull Ring Diameter
2.37m
Throw Distance
1.73m
Bull Height (floor)
170
Max 3-Dart Checkout
🎯 Segment Area & Probability Reference
| Target | Area (cm²) | % of Board | Random Hit Prob. | Difficulty |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double Bullseye (50) | 0.32 | 0.10% | 1 in 1000 | Expert |
| Single Bull (25) | 4.91 | 1.62% | 1 in 62 | Very Hard |
| Triple 20 (60) | 5.40 | 1.78% | 1 in 56 | Hard |
| Triple 19 (57) | 5.40 | 1.78% | 1 in 56 | Hard |
| Double 20 (40) | 2.76 | 0.91% | 1 in 110 | Hard |
| Double 16 (32) | 2.76 | 0.91% | 1 in 110 | Hard |
| Single 20 (20) | 31.0 | 10.20% | 1 in 10 | Medium |
| Single 19 (19) | 31.0 | 10.20% | 1 in 10 | Medium |
| Any Single Segment | ~17.5 | ~5.75% | 1 in 17 | Low–Med |
🔢 Common Checkout Routes
| Score | Darts Needed | Route (3 Darts) | Difficulty | Alt. Route |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 170 | 3 | T20, T20, Bull | Expert | — |
| 167 | 3 | T20, T19, Bull | Expert | — |
| 160 | 3 | T20, T20, D20 | Expert | T20, T20, D20 |
| 121 | 3 | T20, 11, D25 | Hard | T17, T10, D20 |
| 100 | 2 | T20, D20 | Hard | T16, D26 |
| 81 | 2 | T19, D12 | Medium | T15, D18 |
| 40 | 1 | D20 | Medium | — |
| 32 | 1 | D16 | Medium | — |
| 16 | 1 | D8 | Low | — |
| 2 | 1 | D1 | Low | — |
📈 Skill Level – Expected Score & Hit Rates
| Skill Level | 3-Dart Avg | T20 Hit Rate | Double Rate | Bull Rate | Checkout % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beginner | 30–50 | 5–10% | 8–15% | 3–6% | 10–25% |
| Intermediate | 51–80 | 15–30% | 20–35% | 8–15% | 30–45% |
| Advanced | 81–100 | 35–55% | 40–55% | 18–28% | 50–65% |
| Professional | 95–110 | 55–75% | 55–70% | 28–45% | 65–85% |
| World Class | 100+ | 75%+ | 70%+ | 45%+ | 85%+ |
🏏 Cricket Segment Close Probabilities
| Target Number | Marks to Close | Int. Hit/Dart | Adv. Hit/Dart | Exp. Darts (Int.) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 3 | 28% | 52% | ~11 darts |
| 19 | 3 | 27% | 50% | ~11 darts |
| 18 | 3 | 26% | 48% | ~12 darts |
| 17 | 3 | 25% | 46% | ~12 darts |
| 16 | 3 | 24% | 44% | ~13 darts |
| 15 | 3 | 23% | 42% | ~13 darts |
| Bull | 2 | 10% | 22% | ~20 darts |
📏 Setup Tip: The official oche (throwing line) must be exactly 7 ft 9.25 in (237 cm) from the face of the board. The bull's-eye center must be 5 ft 8 in (173 cm) from the floor. Diagonal distance from oche to bull ≈ 9 ft 7.5 in (293 cm).
🎯 Probability Tip: To calculate the probability of hitting a target at least once in N darts, use: P(at least 1) = 1 – (1 – p)^N. For a 45% hit rate over 3 darts: 1 – (0.55)^3 = 83.4% chance of at least one hit.
🔢 Checkout Tip: The highest possible 3-dart checkout is 170 (T20, T20, Bull). There are 42 possible checkouts between 2 and 170. Scores of 169, 168, 166, 165, 163, 162, and 159 cannot be checked out in 3 darts.
📊 Scoring Tip: Expected 3-dart score = 3 × (hit rate × segment value + miss rate × neighbor average). Professional players average 95–100+ per visit aiming at T20. Always aim T19 when neighbors (1 and 5) are worse than T20 neighbors (5 and 1).
Darts involve the use of probability and skill to achieve the best outcome for a players. A player must decide whether they would like to focus upon building there score or focusing on finishing there score. Building a score involve hitting trebels to reduce the amount of points that a player must score during their turn.
Building a score, however, also introduces the risk of bustting. Finishing a score, on the other hand, involves hitting doubles to reach 0 point for that players turn. Hitting doubles is required for the game of darts to require players to finish on a double.
Risky or Safe Ways to Score and Finish in Darts
A player must understand the difference between each of the two routes that can be taken to reach their desired score. An aggressive route involve a player attempting to hit trebels to reduce there score to a low number. An aggressive route is beneficial for players who are scoring high numbers, but can lead to a bust.
A bust occur when a player either scores more points than there current score, or leaves there score in a way that cannot be finished on a double. A safe route, in comparison, involve a player aiming to leave an even number of points. A safe route can be beneficial for players because even numbers (like 32 or 40) can typically be finished on a double without leaving a score that is difficulty to finish.
Probability becomes a factor in darts in that a player hit rates will change with the different targets that they aim for on the dart board, as well as the pressure that they feel during the game. For instance, a player may have high hit rates for single numbers on the dart board, but they may have lower hit rates for trebels and doubles. The pressure that a player feels during a game may also impact a player hit rates for doubles and trebels; the more higher the pressure, the lower the hit rates for these targets.
Consequently, a player must be able to calculate the expected points that they can earn from a visit to the dart board. Calculations can assist a player in determining which route is the best route to take to their remaining score. For instance, if a player has a score of 170, they may choose to hit trebels in an effort to get to a score that can be finished on a double.
If a player has a score of 81, however, they may choose to hit a treble of 19 to leave a score of 12. A player must be careful with odd numbers, as those odd numbers could lead to a difficult scoring situation. For instance, if a player leaves 19 points, they must hit a single 3 to leave 16 points, a double.
The ability to manage risk during their turn is the factor that separates players of different skill levels within the game of darts. A skilled player will have high hit rates for trebels, as they are required to hit those targets often during their turn. A player of lower skill levels, however, should utilize safe routes in order to minimize there risk of busting.
A primary consideration for all players is the expected leave for a players turn. Aiming for a clean leave (an easy score to finish) is one of the primary goal of players of darts. In order to play darts effectively, a player must use probability to determine the best route for that players turn.
A player can choose to utilize either an aggressive route or a safe route. Each route has its benefits, as well as its risks. By focusing upon even numbers and scores that can be finished on a double, a player can even increase there probability of win each leg of darts.
