Calculate expected DPR for attacks, spells & crits in D&D 5e
| Weapon / Spell | Damage Dice | Avg (No Bonus) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dagger / Shortsword | 1d4 / 1d6 | 2.5 / 3.5 | Light, finesse |
| Longsword (1H) | 1d8 | 4.5 | Versatile (1H) |
| Longsword (2H) | 1d10 | 5.5 | Versatile (2H) |
| Greataxe | 1d12 | 6.5 | Heavy, two-handed |
| Greatsword | 2d6 | 7.0 | Heavy, two-handed |
| Rapier | 1d8 | 4.5 | Finesse |
| Fireball (3rd) | 8d6 | 28.0 | Dex save, half on save |
| Fireball (upcast 4th) | 9d6 | 31.5 | +1d6 per level above 3rd |
| Eldritch Blast | 1d10 | 5.5 | +1 beam per 5 levels |
| Magic Missile (1st) | 3x(1d4+1) | 10.5 | Auto-hits, 3 darts |
| Sneak Attack Lv1 | 1d6 | 3.5 | Rogue feature |
| Sneak Attack Lv5 | 3d6 | 10.5 | Rogue level 5 |
| Divine Smite (1st slot) | 2d8 | 9.0 | +1d8 per slot above 1st |
| Divine Smite (2nd slot) | 3d8 | 13.5 | Paladin feature |
To find the average damage in DnD, start with the average of dice. The average roll for a die is the sum of all numbers divided by the number of sides. For d6 it is 3.5, for d8 4.5, for d10 5.5, and so on.
D4 has an average of 2.5, because it does not have zero. So 2d4 averages 5 and adding 2 reachs 7
Fast trick for fireball: 8d6 is 8 times 3.5, so 28 damage. Or think 4 times 7, same result, but simpler. For big sets of dice, websites as anydice.com help to find the avergae quickly.
For average damage per round, start with the dice and add flat bonuses, like Strength modifier or magic weapon bonus. For instance, Craig usually does 1d10+3 with his Glaive and adds 1d6 from Hex. D10 averages 5.5, d6 3.5, together 9 damage.
Think also about hits. At AC 11 there is a 50% chance to hit; every point of AC lowers it by 5%. Proficiency bonus helps by 5% each point.
With standard accuracy of 65% the math changes a lot. Chances for hits, critical hits, advantage, disadvantage and bonus dice as Elven Accuracy all affect the average damage for a round.
Level 5 monk does 3 attacks for 2d8+1d6+12, average 24.5 damage per turn without spending Ki. A fighter with a longsword does 1d8+2 or +3, average 7 or 8. Level 20 fighter with +3 longsword does 1d8+8 each hit; assuming all land, it averages 36 damage for a basic round.
Optimized user of Eldritch Blast with Agonizing Blast and Hex, who maxes his 16 to 20 in Tier 2, does average 12, 28, 42 or 56 damage per round according to the tier.
For average critical damage, double the dice and add flat bonuses once. If your role is to do damage, aim for double or triple the standard values, to cover party members that do zero damage. Using average damage for PCs is not in the rules and would be unusual, but a DM can do that to speedup the game.