Dice Pool Probability Calculator for Success Odds
🎲 Dice Pool Probability Calculator
Exact success thresholds, rerolls, max-face bonuses, and opposed rolls.
📌Presets
⚙Pool Settings
How many dice you roll before bonuses.
The calculator treats one die as one independent roll.
Faces at or above this number count as hits.
Positive shifts make success harder; negative shifts help.
Target number of total successes for the roll.
Set this to compare against another roll.
Applies the same threshold logic to the rival roll.
Rerolls only matter when a 1 would miss.
How many hits the highest face is worth.
8d10
Current pool
50.0%
Hit chance per die
3+
Target successes
6d10
Opposed pool
📊Results
Chance to hit target
0.0%
exact total odds
Expected successes
0.00
average hits per roll
Zero-success risk
0.0%
all dice miss
Win rate
0.0%
tie 0.0% / lose 0.0%
🔍Full Breakdown
Your dice8 dice
Die sized10
Base threshold5+
Applied threshold5+
Reroll ruleYes
Max-face result1 success
Hit chance per die50.000%
Average hits per die0.500
Target successes3+
Opposed dice6 dice
Opposed threshold5+
Win / Tie / Lose0.0% / 0.0% / 0.0%
Exact success math
Successes come from exact face counts, not simulation. The pool distribution is built by convolving each die outcome. Probability to meet the target is the sum of all totals at or above the needed row, and opposed odds compare the two full distributions directly.
| Hits | Exact chance | Cumulative | Notes |
|---|
📈Reference Tables
| Threshold | d6 | d8 | d10 | d12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3+ | 66.7% | 75.0% | 80.0% | 83.3% |
| 4+ | 50.0% | 62.5% | 70.0% | 75.0% |
| 5+ | 33.3% | 50.0% | 60.0% | 66.7% |
| 6+ | 16.7% | 37.5% | 50.0% | 58.3% |
| Face band | Roll meaning | Hits | Chance |
|---|
| Pool | Target odds | Avg hits | Zero hits |
|---|
| Opp pool | Win | Tie | Lose |
|---|
💬Tips
Use the threshold first
Every exact roll starts with the hit line. Once the threshold is fixed, the pool size tells you how fast the odds stack up.
Rerolls change low pools
Rerolling 1s matters most when the pool is small. It shifts miss results into the middle of the curve and raises hit chance.
Dice pool is made up of group of dice that you uses for various mechanics in games. Many such systems operate by means of binomial probability distribution. They estimate the weight of actions according to amount of launches.
The chance for one successful launch depends of the successful value on the cubes of the pool. For instance, casting 10 six-sided cubes you expects that half from them will show 4 or more. Designer of games can use that for lay success as number of cubes with undoubted value that controls the likelihood of action.
How Dice Pools Work and How to Count Chances
When player bids hazardous or unsure action the master of game requires launch. The master points Attribute Skill and Trouble. The player then launches ten-sided cubes according to the amount of ratings of his player in those fields.
Some systems have other rules. In Firefly RPG one ignores units and the result give the two biggest values. Other variants introduce different complexities.
For instance add a die to pool can reduce successchance if the whole becomes evennumber because you subtract failures of successes and alter the target for dice.
For estimate those chances needs care. Get 10 successes on 10 dice cubes in Shadowrun happen only in 0.0017% of occasions so around once from 50 000 attempts. Some results are extremely rare.
AnyDice are advanced calculator for probabilities of dice available online and done for role games. It settles tasks analytically so results always precise. Rather than fake thousands of launches it counts chances for every possible result and ties that what coincides with provisions.
For big pools it applies optimizations because direct calculation would explode too much possibilities.
You can analyse the numbers according to many modes. Threshold is the most little value on a die that counts as success. Also matters the chance that cubes in pool reach or surpass target.
For d6 every value has chance 1 from 6. If one intends 1st probability stays 1 from 6. With d10 counts alike principle for the maximum.
Some players lay special dice with aspects only 0 and 1 for reach precise targets. That simplifies the calculation of chances for various dice sets.
