Everyone thinks, “Well, a team with a winning record should get the top seed.” It makes sense. You see a bunch of wins and losses, and it seem to say everything you need to know. But anyone who has organized a league or followed college football knows that not all win are created equal. A … Read more

Maybe you’ve heard that a team might have a misleading record because of its schedule. Maybe you’ve heard that a losing team was realy good, because it played a tough schedule. Or maybe you’ve heard that a team with a perfect record can be written off as weak, because its schedule was soft. I think … Read more

This is what people ask about all the time when they look at sports. Why do some teams blow out opponents and have big leads yet lose? Why do other teams win close ugly games? And why does it sometimes seem like winning ugly games makes you look better than blowing out your opponent? Sometimes … Read more

Take that guesswork and put it in a spreadsheet called an expected wins calculator. By inputting your score differential, remaining games, schedule strength, and current standings, you can see where you stands now and where you will likely finish at the end of season. What I found was that the first input; the one you’re … Read more

If you’ve seen any amount of sports at all, you understand this: an 80-win team isn’t necessarily best team on the court or field. Maybe they caught some breaks. They won a couple more one-run ballgames. A half-dozen close contests ended up going their way even though they didn’t really deserve it. There was no … Read more

The end-of-season picture is a mathematical puzzle, with the variables shifting as games are played. Your team is hovering around the cutline for the playoffs. A competitor sit safely above you. Everything counts. But everything doesn’t count equally. That’s where the elimination number comes into play. This figure tell you precisely what your real-world leverage … Read more

This time of year, the last week of a championship season realy messes with your mind. You have several tabs up on your browser, each on a different page of standings. You click refresh every ten seconds. You try to run through every potential scenario in your head. Your team has to win. The rival … Read more